I’m a sports fan, at least when it comes to the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Oklahoma Sooners.
When I watch basketball games, sometimes the announcers will talk about “streaks.” This especially comes up when a play is on a “streak” of making three-point shots. If a player makes, say, six consecutive three-point shots, then the sportscaster will almost inevitably say the player is on a “hot streak.” Coaches will sometimes even try to get the ball to a player on such a supposed streak.
I’m a math guy, so of course I wonder about what the numbers have to say. Just how likely is it that a particular player would be on a “hot streak?”
It turns out, there’s a way to calculate this! Check it out.j
For example, if a player historically makes 65% of her three-point shots, and if she takes a total of 25 three-point shots in a game, then the chances of a run of six consecutive shots is over fifty percent. Thus, it’s not really a “hot streak” at all. In fact, it’s more likely than not that she’d have a run of six consecutive successful three-point shots.